Navigating Plausible and Preferred Philippine Futures: Report on the CEF Strategic Foresight and Futures Thinking Course

Philippine Futures Circa 1999

Thirteen years ago, the 16th World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) Global Conference the Futures of Diversity: Celebrating Life and Complexities in the Next 100 Years  was held in the Philippines. According to George Aguilar (2001), the conference revolved around two themes: the need for maintaining ecological diversity and retain cultural diversity for the survival of the human species (physical, mental and spiritual) amidst the onset of globalization.

The event inspired a number of Filipino professors, corporate executives, consultants, community organizers, social activists and cultural creatives to join the WFSF. The Philippines would host the World Futures Studies Federation Secretariat from 1999 to 2002. Cesar Villanueva would serve in the WFSF Executive Committee and was elected to the WFSF board. The year 1999 and onwards was, perhaps, the emerging years of Philippine futures studies.

The Futures of Philippine Futures Studies

Last year, I had the opportunity to catch up with Cesar as one of the course directors (the other being Jim Dator) of the futures studies course organized by the WFSF at the Right Livelihood College, Universiti of Sains Malaysia in Penang. Cesar had a lot to say about Philippines futures, “while there were some gains in the past and a resurgence of interest on futures in the Philippines,  the country remain pallid when it comes to futures. When compared to Malaysia and Singapore, the Philippines need to do more on this area.” Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia are now strategic foresight hotspots in the Asia pacific.

That day, I tried to scan the web for futures or foresight related events in the Philippines. To my surprise, Cesar was right.  I learned that there were only a few articles and events in the Philippines that were related to strategic foresight and futures thinking. There was a dearth of academic and industrial research or papers that employed foresight methods,  and, I could not find a report, document or essay published on a major or minor journal, or presented in a conference, government reports, blogs, etc. on the net. There might be some articles or presentations but these may not have not been posted or shared online.

The lack of a Philippine futures portal and a local based blog sites and websites, lack of a futures literacy and education, I assume, might have restricted Filipino access to and interest to strategic foresight. The absence of a futures community and futures discourse may have  confined “the futures” discourse to a few elite corporations, consultancies,  academics and  experts in the Philippines.

I was fortunate, however, to find a couple of articles and essays related to Philippine futures thinking.

Sohail Inayatullah’s essay entitled Alternative Futures in the Philippines written in the 1990s is an excellent read. It mapped possible, plausible and preferred futures in the Philippines. Tony Stevenson’s essay entitled Courage and Resilience: Creating Filipino Futures is also a must read. Stevenson explored the past, present and democracy futures in the Philippines. The typhoon was used as a metaphor to encapsulate the Philippine experience to democracy and alternative futures.  Cesar Villanueva’s paper entitled Beyond Typhoon and Earthquakes: An Eagle’s Eyes of the Futures of Asian Development and Cultures is highly recommended. The article entitled “Futures Thinking” written by Florangel Rosario Braid urged Philippine public and private sectors to integrate futures thinking in management and decision-making.

Short-Term Orientation versus Long-Term Orientation

As I deepened my search, I was lucky to find Geert Hoffstedes’ research on long-term orientation. Hoffstede learned that Filipinos were more short-term than long-term oriented. Hoffstede, a social psychologist, had the values of persistence (perseverance), the ordering of relationship by status, thriftiness, and having a sense of shame as long-term oriented values. These values according to Hoffstede are future oriented, pragmatic and more dynamic.

Society’s that slopes towards the values of personal steadiness and stability, protecting your face, respect for tradition and reciprocation of favors, greetings and gifts were short term oriented. These values according to Hoffstede are geared towards the past and the present, hence, were more static, inert, or unchanging.

The Philippines was placed in the category of countries with high short-term orientation. China, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and South Korea were considered societies with high long term orientation.

Navigating Plausible and Preferred Philippine Futures

The deep conversations I had with Jose Ramos and constant email exchanges with Sohail Inayatullah, Cesar Villanueva, Stuart Candy, Anwar Fazal and MeiMei Song solidified my plan to establish the Center for Engaged Foresight (CEF).

This year, the CEF organized a two-day course on futures thinking, public policy and strategic foresight. Jose Ramos, a senior consulting editor at the Journal of Futures Studies and professor at the National University of Singapore and I course facilitated the workshop. The  course was able to generate new insights and we had a very intensive and interactive  strategic foresight workshop.

The course explored some plausible and preferred Philippine futures on:

a. Philippine Democracy
b. Corruption and Good Governance
c. Environment, Mining and Law Enforcement
d. Local Language, Higher Education and the Call Center Industry

Identifying Strategic Domains of Governance

These issues were known through the process of “speed dating”. In the speed dating activity, participants were requested to identify and write in a sheet of paper at least two major issues they considered “wicked problems”. Wicked problems are problems that are by nature difficult to solve due to the complexity of the problem (its multidimensional or strangulated causes makes it difficult to resolve). The participants were asked to find a partner who was interested on a similar issue or with the same wicked problem in mind.The partners worked on their issues and applied different foresight techniques and methods to unpack the causes and solutions.

Philippine Democracy Scenarios and Alternative Futures

Applying the emerging issues analysis and double-variable method to scenario building, the group explored the possible, plausible and preferred Philippine democracy futures.

The issue was political dynasty. The background was that politics in the Philippines has been under the control of few notable families. It has been regular or perhaps normal in the Philippines for a politician’s son, wife, brother, sister and relatives to run in the same office and assume other government offices (appointed or elected). This wicked problem was the day’s news headline and the news reported that civil society groups, people’s organizations and academics urged the congress to legislate an anti-political dynasty law.

Table 1 is a synopsis of the group output on Philippine democracy scenarios with political dynasty as the wicked problem. A more in-depth exploration of Philippine Democracy futures will be presented in a separate article.

Table 1. Philippine Democracy Scenarios pdf

Corruption and Governance

Corruption and weak governance was the second wicked problem explored by the participants. As a group, it employed causal layered analysis to deconstruct the causes and solutions to corruption and weak governance.

The context was the Philippines ranked as 129th out of 183 most corrupt countries in the world by the Transparency International. The corruption perception index slightly improved from 134th last year. The improve ranking was attributed to President Aquino’s Anti-Corruption agenda. The TI survey looks at factors such as enforcement against anti-corruption laws, access to information and conflicts of interests (Horacio, 2011). The table below is a summary of the group output.  The group that worked on this issue will do an in-depth exploration of causes and solutions using CLA as a method.

Table 2 is a summary of CLA workshop on Philippine corruption and alternative governance futures.

TAble 2. CLA Layers Corruption and Governance pdf

Environment, Mining and Law Enforcement

The third group consisting of academics, pollution control officers and environmentalists identified environmental protection and management as the third wicked challenge.

They employed a variety of futures tools to explore its futures.

But in this article I will present only the group’s initial output using the cross impact analysis to scenario development as a method. A more thorough exploration will be presented in a separate article.

The group identified at least five key variables that drives the future of environmental protection and management in the Philippines at the local government level.

These are: (1) political will; (2) LGU Leadership; (3) Enforcement of Law; (4) Monitoring; (5) Financing. The cross impact analysis was selected by the group to explore and unpack a better scenario considering the uncertainty or wickedness of environmental degradation in the Philippines at the local government level. The figure below is an example of scenario making using cross-impact analysis as a method.

The group assumed that law enforcement has a strong correlation to political will, LGU leadership, monitoring and financing. The law enforcement variable appeared as the most significant variable in all the variables identified. In fact, the intensity of law enforcement at the local government level defines the nature of political will and LGU leadership and the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring and financing in environmental protection and management at the local government level.

Moreover, monitoring is strongly correlated to LGU leadership and enforcement of law and financing is strongly related to enforcement of law. On the other hand, financing has a weak correlation to political will and LGU leadership as far the groups’ experiences (as academics, chairman and members of mining boards, as engineers of a mining firm, as a local government official, as an NGO participant) were concerned.

The outputs, however, require further examination and the scenarios emerging from these relationships will be presented in a separate article.

Local Language, the English Only Policy and the Call Center Industry

The fourth wicked problem that participants identified was the tension between the need to preserve and strengthen the Ilocano language, the English only language policy and the demand of the call center industry. Using cross-impact analysis as a method, different scenarios emerged.

These are: Danger mode – the Ilocano language is under threat and so is the Ilocano heritage.

While the government supports the use of the Ilocano inside the classroom (primary and secondary schools), most higher education institutions, however, implement an English language only policy. The view was that English was all about global competitiveness and that call center industries demand a more English proficient work force in the Philippines.

In short, the economic value of the English language informs tertiary education policies, Philippine industry and labor policies. More scenarios were unpacked by participants when foresight methods were applied on the issue. The underlying core message or question was  how might we respond to the transformation of local language, education and labor demands for a better tomorrow (language, policy, industry) was the aim of the investigation.

Conclusion: Deep Change Needed

The strategic foresight workshop was, I think, intensive and engaged participants to explore plausible and preferred Philippine futures. Issues like the family affair democracy system, corruption, environment and language were the wicked problems and traumas of the present. These traumas needed an antidote, they said. The participants sincerity to explore alternatives and transformative futures were indicative of their hard-wearing optimism.  The option to act and engaged at different levels (personal, community, government, corporate, etc.) of “people power” was needed they argued.

The ‘slingshot of David’ (symbolizes digital activism, peer to peer weird and provocative actions and ideas, etc.) was required to overcome the might of Goliath (corruption, political dynasties, status quo, the crack pot realism of the present) was the preferred image or metaphor for action. The participants insights and reflections were similar to Friedrich Nietzsche who said “the future influences the present just as much as the past.”

The foresight workshop enabled us to think beyond the weight of history and the options for actions became clearer (the backcasting workshop had us strategically outlined preferable actions to overcome the wicked problems).  We felt we were able to create a number of  generative  and game-changing ideas, programs and projects. As one participant noted “we have move from implications to alternative and transformative futures. There was a heightened awareness on what’s real, and the real was a call to action! The present is now even more remarkable. What we need in this country is deep change and a hell lot of creativity, social innovation and If I may, daring imagination.”

References

Shermon Cruz. 2012. Workshop notes on Strategic Foresight and Futures Thinking Workshop, October 26-27, 2012, Palacio De Laoag, Ilocos Norte Philippines.

George Aguilar. 2001. Insights and Reflections on Selected Papers Presented During the 16th World Conference, Retrieved on November 25, 2012 from http://web.archive.org/web/20050314235330/http://www.wfsf.org/publications/bacolod.html

Past Activities WFSF Conference. Retrieved on November 25, 2012 from http://www.wfsf.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=199&Itemid=111

Random action-learning photos here.

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Future Generations Thinking and Social Foresight

I was able to facilitate a couple of Ilocano youth futures workshop in the province last month and we had about 800 students and youth signed up for a series of futures workshops. The aim of the futures workshop was to expose the Ilocano youth to futures thinking, alternative futures and social foresight.

The workshop we had focused on how the youth perceive and create alternative futures. The workshop had the students list their questions and imaginings about the future.

My approach was emergent as I wanted them to explore and cover different spectrum of personal and community futures. I’ve been facilitating community based futures workshop in the last six months. And the experience was thought provoking and so my plan now is to reach out to at least 5,500 students and youth all over the country. My futures approach was partly inspired by Geert Hoffstedes’ study on long-term orientation (LTO). Sohail Inayatullah’s book on transformative thinking called Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Social Transformation plus Richard Slaughter and Marcus Bussey’s book on futures thinking and social foresight inspired me and of course deepened my resolve to organize multisectoral-oriented social foresight events.

So when I had an Ilocano student and youth thinking about the future I usually ask them the four basic futures questions:

What will Ilocos be like in the future say 20, 30 or 40 years from now?

What are your fears and hopes about the future? What are your preferred futures?

What are the fears that might restrict or prohibit you from achieving your desired future?

These questions are straightforward and anyone I mean anybody can ask or explore these questions.

I had the students/youth participants think about the future by focusing their awareness on time, deconstruct the present and imagine alternative types of futures.

I had them questioned default types of futures (official future, single visions, one-man visions) and know their disowned futures (it was evident that the youth does not want unemployment, political dynasties, corruption, etc.).

The futures that I am working on are anchored on the present to create alternative futures.

In the study of Hoffstede on LTO, the Philippines ranked at the lowest in the world on long term orientation. Hoffstede, a social psychologist, had the values of persistence (perseverance), the ordering of relationship by status, thriftiness, and having a sense of shame as long-term oriented values.

These values according to Hoffstede are future oriented and more dynamic.

On the opposite, short term orientation (STO) society’s slopes towards the values of personal steadiness and stability, protecting your face, respect for tradition and reciprocation of favors, greetings and gifts. These values according to Hoffstede are orientated towards the past and the present hence are more static.

In the same study, the Philippines placed in the category of societies with high short-term orientation. China, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and South Korea were considered societies with high long term orientation implying a pragmatic future-oriented perspective.

The youth futures workshops had uncovered some of the Ilocano youth’s perspectives and questions (personal, community and global). These are some of their questions and imaginings:

The commercialization of the Ilocano emotion widespread in the year 2060 (I shop therefore I am types of thinking)
The raging extinction of biodiversity in Ilocos Norte due to mining and illegal logging
A new Ilocano President gets elected
Nature and trees are worshipped in the year 2060 as humans have realized that they are within and created by nature and not above it.
Cars and other transport vehicles move along on internet signal (their preferred transport futures)
People will have their own drugs or “personalized drugs” is customary (homeopathic therapy prevalent in the future)
Political dynasties ends in the year 2050 or else?
Will I ever reach the age of 75?
When will corruption and poverty end?
When will journalist killing stop?
Will lesbians, gays, bisexuals, trans-genders gain legal rights in the Philippines?
Is there a future to our future?
Will I have a job in the future?
Will robots replace humans?
When will we have a fair and just election?
May puno pa bang maakyatan ang susunod na henerasyon?
Will robots take over the world and our future jobs?
Will aliens arrive in the planet?
In the years yet to come, will there still be fresh air to breath and water to drink?

I am scheduled to visit and pursue similar projects in Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, La Union and Pangasinan. I was invited by some groups and universities in the National Capital Region, the Visayas and Mindanao to facilitate futures thinking and social foresight workshops.

The youth futures workshops I’ve been having were mostly campus based. I would like to thank the Student Affairs Office of Northwestern University and Dean Karl Lenin Benigno, Mr. Jericho DeCastro, Mam Judelyn Salvador, the NSTP group of NWU for integrating youth futures in community engagement.

References

Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transformation. Tamkang University Press, Taipei, Taiwan. Graduate Institute of Futures Studies. 2012.

Geert Hoffstede, What about the Philippines? Geert Hoffstede 5D Model. Available at http://geert-hofstede.com/philippines.html> Accessed 23 August 2012. See also Geert Hoffstede Official Website available at http://www.geerthofstede.nl/our-books

City of Sunshine 2040!

Laoag City Business Risk Assessment and Scenario Building Workshop

The city of Laoag is blessed with brilliant story-tellers, long-term thinkers, and scenario-makers.This I learned when we had a scenario-building workshop last week at the Fort Ilocandia Resort and Hotel. Organized and facilitated by the WWF-Philippines (World Wide Fund for Nature), the world’s largest conservation organization, and BPI Foundation Inc., the corporate social responsibility arm of the Bank of the Philippines Islands, we explored the most plausible and preferred futures for the city of Laoag.

Participants of the workshop were key officials and members of the Philippine local chamber and commerce, BPI bank managers, academics, researchers, search and rescue teams, media, environmentalists, and representatives from the city government of Laoag. The double driver and the four quadrant approach to scenario-building were used to explore Laoag’s alternative futures. The “event” was facilitated by former NEDA secretary-general and Ateneo economics professor Dr. Cielito Habito, Jose Lorenzo Tan, Chief Executive Officer and Vice-Chairman of the WWF Philippines and Ms. Ella Antonio of Braintrust Inc.

The STEEP (social, technology, economics, environment, political) approach was employed to identify key drivers of Laoag’s future. The participants identified the following as main drivers  of Laoag’s development trajectory: (1) governance and partnership; (2) education; (3) values, and (4) health. The participants had these questions in mind when they tried exploring plausible futures: Is Laoag City water crisis neutral? Is Laoag City flood crisis neutral? Is Laoag a refuge or a risk area? What are the trends? What are standards of next practice that will allow the city to retain economic viability and respond in a climate-defined future? What are the possible and preferred scenarios for Laoag 2040? What drives the development of Laoag? What factors would decide the long-term development of Laoag city?

With governance/partnership and functional literacy informing the scenario-building workshop, the participants came up with four future images of Laoag in the year 2040. These scenarios had storylines in it and it may or may not happen in the future. Scenarios are methods used by foresighteers to anticipate the future and create alternative futures.

The four Laoag alternative futures are: (1) Sunset City Laoag (the worst case or the “nobody wants that future” scenario); (2) Ranyag ti Laoag (there is development but it is unsustainable future case scenario); (3) Lawlawagen Yo! (the negative governance, no light in the tunnel and the emergence of the wise crowd scenario) and (4) Nalawag a Laoag! (The best case scenario or the preferred future; this is the most optimistic future, or the best possible reality/world for the city of Laoag). I would like to discuss them briefly.

The “Sunset City Laoag” is a scenario where the “Pac-man” (the video game, not the politician-boxer) sort of leader gets elected as city mayor and consumes public resources for private gain. Corruption and other short-termism type of governance and priorities shapes the trajectory of Laoag in the year 2040.

The Pac-man induced headlines like corruption, violence, etc. made Laoag more vulnerable to climate change impact and hazards. The effect was felt at the business and household levels as flooding, chaos were visual and functional illiteracy was at the highest. The gains that Laoag had in governance and literacy in 2012 was lost due to bad governance and due to the absence of partnership between the government and the private sector. The low functional literacy rate aggravated corruption and unemployment resulting to a scenario where the “sun set” in Laoag. The environment, health, functional illiteracy, unemployment and business risk was at its highest in the year 2040. Laoag joins the the list of high risk cities in the Philippines and Asia.

The “Ranyag ti Laoag” scenario is an image of Laoag where good governance and partnership peaked in the year 2040 but Laoag recorded substantial declines in functional literacy. This low functional literacy rate devastated Laoag in the process. While Laoag emerged as a refuge area for business and tourism.  The influx of people, remittances, money, investments and other manifestation of the “west is best” type of urbanization devastates the children and youth of Laoag. The OTOP or “one town one product”, for lack of creativity and social innovation, became OTOC or the “one town one casino” image in 2040. Casino mushroomed in the city of Laoag and prostitution, gambling, drugs, trafficking, smuggling and other illegal activities redirects Laoag’s future and devastates the younger generation. Laoag improves but functional literacy stagnates in this scenario.

The third was “Lawlawagen Yo!” scenario. Driven by bad governance and high functional literacy rate in Laoag,  the government mishandles its resources (capital and non-capital). Thus, vulnerability Laoag to climate impact and hazards increased (dengue, etc). Aggravated by corruption, unemployment, flooding, health, etc.   Laoag gets lost in the wilderness of rapid change (environmental and social). The highly educated public emerged and now challenge the status quo.  Laoaguenos would demand for outright social transformation. A revolt by the “wise crowd” takes place (wisdom of the crowd) and elects a new mayor embodying the “wisdom of the Laoaguenos”. The new mayor gets elected and Laoag joins the list of socially engaged cities in the world. The installed mayor becomes a future recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Laoag shines again!

The best case scenario was “Nalawag a Laoag!” This scenario is the most desired or preferred future for the city of Laoag. This is the scenario where good governance and partnership and high functional literacy drives the transformation of the city. The city becomes high-tech and high-breed (nalaing ken ada sursurona) and the tradition of “tag-nawa” inspired types of leadership and “tsinelas” approach to public management creates a tradition of community or hero-oriented leadership and governance in Laoag. The mayor of the future receives the Ramon Magsaysay Award and Nobel Peace Prize in good governance for inspiring the country, Asia and world with new types of city development leadership and governance models. Laoag city moves up in the city economy rankings and international universities emerges inLaoag. The scenario  had an influx of international students in Laoag and local investors now invest in China.

The Laoaguenos are both healthy and wealthy in this scenario and the number of centenarian rises in Laoag. There is peace and there is 100% full transparency. The partnership of the city government, the civil society and private sector is one of the best in the world. As the mayor was long-term oriented and non-corruptible, the mayor inspires the next 100 years of  of transformative leadership and governance. Laoag is alive and shines brightly into the future! “Pakbet becomes Kimchi” is the metaphor of Laoag’s transformative future!