Tag Archives: Macrohistory

Emerging Cityscapes: The UNESCO/CEF Futures Literacy and Sustainable Cities ForumWorkshop

A storm is brewing in Asia, will Philippine cities transcend beyond the narrative of trauma and disasters? Is there an alternative future for Philippine cities or would it learn from the past to innovate, act and create the preferred story?

Are current strategies enough to transform our cities or do we need to question our assumptions now of continued economic growth and rethink our ways of knowing the city and change the way we imagine our cities and leadership from the big man rule – autocratic, corrupt and isolated to the fresh food market – pluralistic, democratic and participatory?

These are some of the questions that the participants of the UNESCO Resilient Cities, Brighter Futures workshop explored for four days. Using anticipatory thinking and strategic foresight methods, city leaders and experts, researchers, managers, advocates, social scientists, futurists, and consultants from the different parts of the country and the world debated, deconstructed and reconstructed Philippine city futures in a Post-Haiyan era.

The Laoag forum workshop is a part of a broader global foresight project launched by UNESCO and the Rockefeller Foundation on futures literacy and introduce foresight to decision-making, public policy and governance.

The initiative aims to help communities better prepare for the future and assist them to become future-literate. Similar workshops have been held in Oslo Norway; Munich, Germany and Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Dr. Kou Hua Chen, futurist from Taiwan, with participants exploring alternative futures for Philippine cities
Dr. Kou Hua Chen, futurist from the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University, Taiwan co-facilitating the exploration of alternative and preferred futures for Philippine Cities

Reimagining Philippine Cities

To Sohail Inayatullah,  a fellow of the World Futures Studies Federation and the World Academy of Arts and Sciences and the main speaker and facilitator  of the UNESCO future lecture series and knowledge workshop, “cities are fast emerging agents of global policy-making and change.”

(Livestream link of Sohail Inayatullah’s lecture and forum-workshop updates and proceedings powered by SMART Communications Philippines are available here – http://new.livestream.com/accounts/6161035/events/3007612/archives)

And as cities faces multiple challenges like climate change, globalization and demographic shifts, Inayatullah argued that cities need to re-think the context, to be versatile and to be flexible enough to respond, innovate and usher in a new era.

Rigid concepts, models, priorities, worldviews and leadership practices of and in the city that leads to urban poverty, pollution, overcrowding, decay and decline must be questioned. Questioning the future of cities enables communities and leaders to create alternative concepts, frameworks and life-urban interfaces.

To do this, Philippine cities should embark and perhaps invest more aggressively on urban regeneration and knowledge creation projects that increases social, economic and community resilience.

Population drifts from rural to urban are expected to rise and if cities fail to read the weak signals they might end up becoming or repeating the stories of Metro Manila, Baguio and Dagupan cities – living beyond 3, 500% of sustainable levels, caught in the middle income trap and highly vulnerable to climatic changes and exposures.

Mr. Moncini Hinay sharing WWF's and Bank of the Philippines Island Foundation study on Twelve Philippine Cities Business Risk Assessment and the Management of Climate Change Impacts
Mr. Moncini Hinay sharing WWF’s and Bank of the Philippines Island Foundation study on Twelve Philippine Cities Business Risk Assessment and the Management of Climate Change Impacts

In Asia, it is projected that its urban population will double from 1.6 to 3 billion by 2050. Philippine cities have to face up to this emerging population and migration trends but how many of its cities will be able to meet the challenge? Just imagine the social, cultural, environmental, political and economic cost of the ASEAN integration and climate change to an unprepared Philippine city.

To be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Simply put, if you know something beforehand, you can prepare for it.

Being aware of the critical drivers and taking the big picture approach can help cities regenerate and transform in the midst of rapidly evolving challenges.

Strategies and Metaphors to the transform the future

Participants were able to re-imagine the contexts and purposes of Philippine cities in a post-Haiyan plus the ASEAN integration, the rise of Asia, Chindia, etc. scenario.

New narratives, metaphors, images, strategies, policies and programs to achieve the preferred future Philippine cities were proposed. Cities are at the forefront of these solutions and innovations and when they happen it could accelerate inclusive growth, open up new value chains for innovation and better city living conditions.

The low hanging fruit was the Smart city.

Improving the efficiency and effectiveness of urban systems, social cohesion, innovation, infrastructure, architecture, energy, transport, national and local governance and the participation of the media, academia and the non-profit sector was essential to creating the smart city.

We have to be smart enough to see the intersection of all the drivers mentioned to create the smart city that we want participants noted. Changing the way we live, work and play in urban environments requires asking the unasked questions. Integrating or applying the best tools like anticipatory thinking and foresight can improve urban planning practices and innovation.

Technology is a critical driver to this type of city.

The metaphor was arangkada. Downside however was the tusong-matsing – a city trying to catch up with its neighbors, economic growth driven, getting smarter but stupidier.

Dr. Virginia Miralao, Secretary-General of the UNESCO National Commission of the Philippines delivered the keynote address
Dr. Virginia Miralao, Secretary-General of the UNESCO National Commission of the Philippines on the need to explore new imaginings and city concepts in a post-Haiyan era

 The G4 city. This is the Laoagueno version of the smart and green city.

Here the city is smarter and wiser.

The green worldview of inclusive interaction, collective emergence and local creativities informs the G4 city. From pure gold in 2012 to the pure and interactive trees, from hypermart (big man rule driven) to the fresh food market (pluralistic, participatory and democratic) city in 2030.

The city’s strategies create the conditions for the greeny Ilocano way of life and lifestyle to thrive; the system and the city and its people finding their own path.

The city is emergent and organic, alive, breathable, walkable and liveable as well safe and inviting for brilliant people and ideas in this city scenario.

The metaphor was the garden of trees and the ecosystems of life.

Laoag emerges as the smart and green capital of the Philippines.

The city is shaped by her residents, community organizers, musicians, ecologists, settlers, farmers and artists and Pamulinawen finds her heart and wooed by a French artist and entrepreneur.

Laoag is globally connected and emerges as a global brand for city resilience and transformation by 2030.

Laoag City Mayor Hon. Chevyyle Farinas sharing Laoag City's resilience building approach and creating valuable future for Laoag
Laoag City Mayor Hon. Chevyyle Farinas sharing Laoag City’s resilience building approach and creating valuable future for Laoag
Dr. Sohail Inayatullah on Futures Thinking and Strategy Development, UNESCO Future Lecture Series Laoag Edition
Dr. Sohail Inayatullah on Futures Thinking and Strategy Development, UNESCO Future Lecture Series, 2014

The Bayanihan City – bayan (community, connectivity), bayani (hero catalyst, peer to peer, sharing economy), ani (wealth, next generation inclusive and sustainability).

Here, Philippine cities get transformed by resiliency and natural disasters.

An empowered, pragmatic and a climate responsive city is created in 2030.

Cities become a prototype, a model for disaster risk reduction and management.

The Japanese proverb that says a bamboo that bends is better than the oak that resist was the myth.

City’s in this context have future-proof flexibility and have adaptable spaces that accommodate multiple changes and challenges.

The city is bayani as it is also generationally inclusive. It accounts and imagines the need, the resources and the opportunity required by future generations. The future generation becomes a part of the policy discourse, planning and urban city design.

From the city of isa, isahan at naisahan to the city narrative of bayan, bayani and ani, Philippine cities creates new hero icons, stories, proverbs and opportunities for the future.

The Healthy, Interactive Living City. 

The city takes the title for fit and healthy living.

Philippine cities invest and create the healthy, living cities and some would even take the top spot in an annual global ranking of healthy cities.

The indicator here was the walk or the bike score, number of yoga and meditation practitioners and decline in the number of citizens suffering from chronic health problems such as diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity. Fruit consumption rate, investment in curative healthcare, number of homeopathy shops, tea shops, number of farmer markets, the decline in the number of patients were significant and are indicators of the healthy living cities.

Physical infrastructures are designed and invested on based on fitness and health impact index.

A healthy city strengthens personal and social immune systems.

National Economic Development Authority Regional Director Maryanne Darauay the result of their futures triangle  analysis on Philippine City futures.
National Economic Development Authority Regional Director Maryanne Darauay presenting their  futures triangle analysis/output on Philippine City futures.

Dorothy and the Wizard of Oz

From the King (the king can do no wrong, father knows best) and the Unruly Citizen of the past and present (bahala na, short term oriented, corruptible citizens) to Dorothy (creative, inclusive and emergent) and the Wizard of Oz (a future world designed by her community and friends, playful and organic and generative), people and local governments leads the way in the diversification and creation of new Philippine cities.

Participants aspired for a city and systems that are people oriented, novel and nonconventional.

They want the Filipino to prosper and participate in creating the preferred.

Restrictive Factors

Too much democracy, closed economy that benefits only the ruling elite, feudal culture, the nation-state, hierarchy, strong power distance index, the raping of natural resources, the middle income trap, short-termism, systemic corruption, asyong aksaya (corrupt and wasteful leadership patterns trends), the alamat of ibong adarna (tinutulugan ang kalamidad at oportunidad) are weights of history, the restrictive factors and barriers to the preferred future.

On behalf of Dr. Riel Miller and the UNESCO Headquarters, Ms. Linda Tinio Le-Douarin explained the context and purposes of the UNESCO forum-workshop
On behalf of Dr. Riel Miller and the UNESCO Headquarters, Ms. Linda Tinio Le-Douarin explained the context and purposes of the UNESCO forum-workshop

The future is an active aspect of the present

Like the past, the future is an active aspect of the present. It is the ‘forward looking equivalent of history’. Using it as a medium to expand planning, policy and governance, the future can provide us practical and imaginative space to create and enact the future today.

Futures thinking can help us reveal the unknown unknowns and imagine multiple alternatives and choices. One does not need to be an expert to take part in futures thinking and strategy development.

Thank you! Thank you!

Now I would like to personally thank Mayor Chevyyle Farinas and Northwestern University President Liza Nicolas, the Northwestern University community and the Laoag City Government for their overwhelming and generous support.

Also, the futures team of the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University and the University of Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies and the International Society of Heal Being Studies at Chung Ang University, Seoul South Korea, Dr. Shunji-jie, Dr. Kou Hua Chen, Dr. Meimei Song, Dr. Jiang Bang Deng, Dr. Hyun Ryul Park, Mark Alexander, Cesar Villanueva, Dr. Mahar Lagmay, Architect Jun Palafox, Dr. Mario De Los Reyes, Dr. Merlita Panganiban, Mr. Moncini Hinay, Jerome Escobar, Atty. Ferdinand Nicolas, Dr. Rudy Bareng, Mayor Dolly Clementd and Vice Mayor Jessie Galano, Ilocos Times Publisher Jay Ramos and Mr. Mitch Esmino, the City Tourism Office of Vigan and the UNESCO National Commission of the Philippines Dr. Virginia Miralao and Ms. Emmy Yanga thank you so much!

Event photos below.

Dr. Shunjie Jie, futurist and professor at the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University,  shares a laugh with the group as they explored alternative futures for Imus City using emerging issues analysis
Dr. Shunjie Jie, futurist and professor at the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University, shares a light moment with the group as they explored alternative futures for Imus City using emerging issues analysis
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Mark Alexander, Manoa School of Futures Studies, University of Hawaii explains Dator’s Laws of the Future and the HRCFS approach to futures studies, current projects, etc.
NWU Laoag President Liza Nicolas and VPs Dr. Rudy Bareng and Atty. Ferdinand Nicolas with Architect and Urban Planner Jun Palafox @ the Forum-Workshop
NWU Laoag President Liza Nicolas and VPs Dr. Rudy Bareng and Atty. Ferdinand Nicolas with Architect and Urban Planner Jun Palafox @ the Forum-Workshop
Architect Jun Palafox, Dr. Mahar Lagmay, Moncini Hinay, Dr. Mario De Los Reyes and Dr. Rudy Bareng answers some questions from participants during the open forum.
Architect Jun Palafox, Dr. Mahar Lagmay, Moncini Hinay, Dr. Mario De Los Reyes and Dr. Rudy Bareng answers some questions from participants during the open forum.
Cesar Villanueva from the World Futures Studies Federation chaired the futures studies morning panel
Cesar Villanueva from the World Futures Studies Federation chaired the panel Perspectives on Foresight and Learning from Experience featuring the Manoa School of Futures Studies, the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University; the International Heal Being Society, South Korea and the Center for Engaged Foresight, Philippines
Dr. Jiang Bang Deng discussing TKUs futures studies program and current projects.
Dr. Jiang Bang Deng shares TKUs experiences, the GIFS futures studies program, current and upcoming projects.
Panel on the Local Government view on resilience building and disaster risk reduction and management that featured lessons and best practices from the City of Laoag, City of Makati and the Province of Albay
Panel on the Local Government view on resilience building and disaster risk reduction and management that featured lessons and best practices from the City of Laoag, City of Makati and the Province of Albay
Panel speakers and chairs for the first day of the UNESCO forum-workshop on futures studies, strategic foresight, resilience building and disaster risk reduction and management, city futures
Panel speakers and chairs for the ceremonial photo ops
Dr. Hyun Ryul Park on the advent of Heal Being Cities and Heal-Based Technology for sustainable city futures.
Dr. Hyun Ryul Park on the advent of Heal Being Cities and Heal-Based Technology for sustainable city futures.
Dr. Mahar Lagmay on Project NOAH, Science and Technology and DRRM
Dr. Mahar Lagmay on Project NOAH, Science and Technology and DRRM
Urban Planner Arch. Jun Palafox on Sustainable City Futures
Urban Planner Arch. Jun Palafox on Sustainable City Futures
Dean Mario De Los Reyes of UP School of Urban and Regional Planning on DRRM integration and comprehensive land use planning
Dean Mario De Los Reyes of UP School of Urban and Regional Planning on DRRM integration and comprehensive land use planning
Groups deconstructed and reconstructed plausible city futures during UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Groups deconstructed and reconstructed plausible city futures during UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Groups deconstructed and reconstructed plausible city futures during UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Groups deconstructed and reconstructed plausible city futures during UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Groups deconstructed and reconstructed plausible city futures during UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Groups deconstructed and reconstructed plausible city futures during UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Dr. Meimei Song, futurist and profesor at the Graduate Institute of Future Studies, Tamkang University co-facilitates the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Dr. Meimei Song, futurist and profesor at the Graduate Institute of Future Studies, Tamkang University co-facilitates the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Macrohistory and Sarkar game at the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Macrohistory and Sarkar game at the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Macrohistory and the Sarkar game at the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Macrohistory and the Sarkar game at the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Macrohistory and the Sarkar game at the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Macrohistory and the Sarkar game at the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Macrohistory and the Sarkar game at the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Macrohistory and the Sarkar game at the UNESCO Knowledge Lab Workshop
Shiela Castillo, climate reality presenter, shares her views on DRRM and city futures
Shiela Castillo, climate reality presenter, shares her views on DRRM and sustainability
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Learnings, possible next steps and takeaways
Learnings, possible next steps and takeaways
Learnings, possible next steps and takeaways
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Learnings, possible next steps and takeaways
Learnings, possible next steps and takeaways
Learnings, possible next steps and takeaways
DSC_8998
Learnings, possible next steps and takeaways

Lots of photos here –  https://www.flickr.com/photos/125022124@N05/

and related links –

http://www.unesco.org/new/en/unesco/events/programme-meetings/?tx_browser_pi1%5BshowUid%5D=28596&cHash=6f1a262388

http://www.unesco.gov.ph/content/article/Home

http://unesco.gov.ph/content/article/Social%20and%20Human%20Sciences

Scoping to Stimulate Novelty in Futures Practice and Collective Intelligence

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Photo credit to UNESCO/Rockefeller Foundation @ the Bellagio Center, Italy

Last month the UNESCO Foresight Section in partnership with the Rockefeller Foundation organized a five day global meet-up of foresight leaders to assess the feasibility of a UNESCO led global network to intensify anticipatory capacities and engagements at the global, regional and local levels. Held at the Sfondrata of the Rockefeller’s Foundation Bellagio Center in Italy, around 25 global foresight leaders participated in the global scoping exercise. The global network is expected to provide support to a broad range of communities of practices engaged in the emergent discipline of anticipation.

Foresight practitioners from the Philippines, Brazil, United Kingdom, United States, Ghana, Bulgaria, Tunisia, South Africa, Australia, India, South Korea, Egypt, Zealand, France, Poland, Italy, Switzerland and Belgium collaborated in groups to intensify efforts to advance the use of the future for decision-making.

This global foresight event was facilitated by Riel Miller, head of the UNESCO’s Foresight Section, Anthony Mckay, Illka Tuonen, Cindy Frewen and Sohail Inayatullah.

Futures Literacy, Communities-of-Practices and Knowledge Creation in a Learning Intensive Society

“Could a futures literate world better integrate the richness of novelty
and creativity into human agency, fostering agility and improvisation…?”
Riel Miller, 2013

Novelty, collective intelligence, futures literacy, the learning intensive society, our multiple selves and layers of thought, networking and experimentation, research, stories and their contexts, decision-making, resilience and socio-cultural transformation were the critical lexes that emerged in the five day Bellagio conference. With the hope of designing new approaches, tools and knowledge to strengthen anticipatory capacities at the global and local levels, the conference tackled the what, the how’s and why’s of anticipation as a new field of discipline. The event also explored how the emergent discipline of anticipation could play a key role in novelty and creative practice in the twenty first century. A variety of tangible initiatives and frameworks to advance futures literacy at the global and local levels would emerge in the week long scoping process. These initiatives would later warrant the idea of co-creating a UNESCO-led global network. The global network was designed to assist and link diverse communities-of-practices actively engaged in the discipline of anticipation.

The break out sessions and their outputs deepened the participants understanding of foresight practice and it challenged them to re-think and if possible re-frame foresight as a field of discipline and practice. While there were a lot of brilliant ideas that emerged in the conference, some of them are worth noting here:

• “The way we think and use the future today is a legacy that we leave our children.” Cultural traditions and indigenous stories are not just stories of the past that remembers and commemorates the trauma and transcendence of our ancestors. When heritage is reframed that is when we view (our) heritage from a futures perspective, our myths and metaphors could enrich the way we mean, narrate and use the future. The ‘spirit’ (the chi, the life-force, the essence) of their stories can help us anticipate, simulate and create the future better. When we capture the life-forces of these stories, new stories and metaphors could emerge. When we acknowledged their mythic and metaphorical narratives as essential, anticipation as field of discipline and practice becomes more grounded and responsive to people and society’s aspirations and needs – intellectual, emotional, and even spiritual levels. The stories of the future or futures practice should at least mirror or better yet reflect how ‘time’ plays out in the moment. (Cruz, Gotseva-Yordanova, Meek 2013).

• “The future is a learning journey. It is an asset, a resource and a narrative waiting to be employed.” Having a multiple perspective about the future is crucial to imagining the future differently. When we view the future interpretively and critically, we learn that ‘the truth’, ‘the real’ and ‘the future’ are created or are anchored on some social constructions – language, culture, power knowledge and episteme. Hence future practitioners must always be ‘aware’ or ‘present’ on how the real and the future is perceived and used. Thus, to create an alternative future or use the future differently, we should acknowledged the existence of other ‘real’ worlds as reality and the future are socially and linguistically constructed. Language is not transparent or value neutral. Language is opaque and it could color reality and the future in particular ways of knowing (Inayatullah, 2013; Inayatullah, 2007). Our cultural realities and worldviews inform the way we perceive and make sense of the future.

• “Our universe is “creative” in the sense that novelty happens” even before we become aware of it. The discipline of anticipation (DoA), with its various tools and methods can strengthen our capacity to locate and make sense of novelty. The nature and role of DoA while it remains patchy plays an essential role in the social sciences. As a field of knowledge, DoA undertakes an exploration and transmittal of knowledge at different levels of reality. It enriches our understanding and experience of anticipation. To Poli (2013) while anticipation is pervasive there are specific anticipatory processes that can be use to enrich our understanding and experience of change, novelty, social and policy analysis. DoA proposes for a more systematic, and specialized approach to imagining the future. The issue of disciplinarity in the field of anticipation, the exploration of some criteria, and accountability in futures practice among others are the concerns of DoA.

• Futures Literacy (FL) like language literacy involves the acquisition of knowledge and skills required to imagine and use the future differently. FL is the basic knowledge and skills on how to use the future. FL assumes familiarity to tacit and explicit anticipatory processes (i.e. optimization (privileges causal-predictive methods and actively extrapolates the future with the past; amenable future), contingency (future is perceive and use to prepare an institution from possible and expected shocks) and novelty (making sense of emergence; future is use to locate and create novel and innovative futures) (Miller, Poli and Rossel, 2013).

• Communities of practices or CoPs is an important unit of analysis and intervention in learning and knowledge creation (Tuomi, 2013). Its different interpretations and modalities could inform UNESCO’s approach to setting up regional workshops. CoP is a social unit or group whose members define themselves as members of the same community of practice (Tuomi quoting Wave here, 2013). Communities of practices is where socially important forms of learning occur. It is also where the amateurs learn from the experts. CoP’s can also be an epistemic community wherein members have a shared worldview and set of core concepts and values. Their ‘shared meaning’ is what keeps their community intact as a social unit (Tuomi, 2013).

CoP’s would evolve later on when Wenger went on to commercialize the concept. Wenger would reframe CoPs to a shared repertoire of mutual engagement and joint enterprise. Here the concept of heterogeneous community would emerge. These communities would interact and collaborate on the basis of classification systems. In a joint enterprise, communities are organized on the basis that they are mutually engaged to pursue a similar or shared objective. In project teams and project based communities, they are able to develop their own identity. People with project identities have a mission to achieve. Project identities are an emergent social structure and are organized towards change where mutual engagement and joint enterprise co-exist with social learning and shared practice. Ilkka’s recommendation is relevant: “Another possibility would be to focus on an emerging community that has a project…it would be possible to support such an emerging community, for example, by providing it with improved tools for futures literacy and new conceptual frameworks for anticipation.”

• A learning intensive society occurs when creativity, novelty, invention, authenticity and innovation becomes a worldview and informs the way we produce, design, and share knowledge at the system and litany levels of reality. Also known as the wisdom culture, these societies are empowered and are capable of birthing new world of intelligence and realities. Here people use imagination and intuition to create alternative worlds. Learning intensive societies are societies that integrate well collective intelligence and the discipline of anticipation to build hybrid and high breed wisdoms in order for new lifestyles and creative technologies to emerge. Beyond automation, machines, nanotechnologies, and knowledge acquisition, these societies are deeply engaged in the effort to advance the wisdom culture, to recover the spiritual self, the ‘perennial tradition’ that was lost centuries ago. The higher order of imperatives reconceptualizes relations between people, technology, and nature.

unesco

The Futures Literacy UKnow-lab Local Scoping Exercises

The futures literacy UNESCO UKnow Lab Process was designed to engage local participants to a futures conversation to understand the present and anticipate the future better. It aims to take advantage of local participants’ knowledge, interests and assumptions of the future. It does this by eliciting participants’ aspirational values and explicit anticipatory assumptions to imagine the future. The project is created to raise awareness and build participants capacity to use the future and spur creativity

Implementation Roadmap

A number of organizations and countries have indicated their interest and presented their initial project designs to hold local scoping exercises. These are the Philippines, Sierra Leone, the Association of Professional Futurist, Brazil, South Africa and Tunisia.

The conference discussed the basic guidelines for LSE implementation.

Causal Layered Analysis and Macrohistory

In the first and fourth day of the conference, Sohail Inayatullah facilitated a Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and Macrohistory game/workshop. CLA is a futures tool used by futures researchers and practitioners to explore the past and the present to create alternative futures at different levels of reality. CLA as a method allows participants to integrate logically different ways of knowing including non-textual and poetic expressions in the futures analysis process (Inayatullah, 2013; 2007).

CLA’s four layers of analysis are: litany – these are the news headlines and the soundbites; systems – these are the STEEP or INSPECT factors, it explores systems causes and enablers; worldview – it is concerned with discourse and worldview analysis, enables participants to make sense of framing to foster a shared understanding of an issue. It deconstructs the litany and systems levels; myth and metaphor – here the deep stories, individual and collective archetypes emerge. This level is more concerned with metaphors and images. It allows for a richer and deeper understanding of an issue, it provides the resilience test to strategies/discourses and enables participants to imagine and design transformative futures.

To Inayatullah (2013), a deeper understanding of the deeper plausible patterns of history is imperative to long-term thinking and futures studies. Macrohistory helps decision-makers to gain a broader picture of an issue particularly crises (Inayatullah, 2007). It focuses on the weight of history (what could not and has not change) and locates the deeper structures that define the limits of the future (Inayatullah, 2007). Inayatullah briefly immersed the group to the field of macrohistory by discussing the concepts of time and progress of a number macrohistorians such as Ibn Khaldun, PR Sarkar, Pitirim Sorokin, Nikolai Kardashev, Augustu Comte, Riane Esler. Inayatullah also facilitated the Sarkar game developed by Peter Hayward and Joseph Voros. The game further deepened the conversation on the future of foresight, the futurist ethics and role in development and progress, the value of space and time, choices, social learning and social innovation, legacy and leadership, needs and responsibilities among others.

Implementation Challenges, Making Choices and Next Steps

At the closing plenary, the group discussed the next steps and reiterated a number of concerns and challenges such as: UNESCO’s commitment to spearhead and make the global network work (the conversation on the nature, content and operational specifics of the global network should continue); funding issues (global, regional and local levels); the need to create and generate more responsive research questions and design; monitoring and evaluation; local scoping exercises proposals and concept papers; the creation of a web based tool to enhance collaboration, transparency and interaction of collaborate to assist proponents of local scoping exercise project design and implementation, etc.

References

Cruz, Shermon. Notes, background papers, project documents and other references on the global meeting/conference regarding “Networking to Improve Global/Local Anticipatory Capacities – A Scoping Exercise”. May 20-24, 2013. Bellagio Center, Bellagio, Italy.

Cruz, Shermon. Powerpoint on the Futures of Child Trafficking in the Philippines: A Futures Literacy UKnow Lab Local Scoping Exercises Proposal. May 2013. Bellagio Center, Bellagio, Italy.

Inayatullah, Sohail. Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transformation. 2007. Tamkang University Press. Taiwan.

Miller, Riel. UNESCO Advanced Seminar: Recent Developments in Futures Thinking: Connecting Foresight to Decision-making. 2009. Xperidox Futures Consulting. France.

Watson, Richard and Freeman, Oliver. Futurevision: Scenarios for the world in 2040. 2012. Scribe Publications. Australia.